Reseeding the Sweet 16
https://youtu.be/ACqwUwUNlLI?si=BZu2e_Pu4lInGexh
A little Sweet 16 juice to remind us what we are in for this year. We as a college basketball community sacrificed some early Cinderella runs and close games for this weekend of hoops. We have some elite matchups with awesome teams, coaches, and players. Without further or do, here is our assessment of the 16 teams left.
Reseeding the Sweet 16 – Onions
- UConn (1 seed)
- Just utter domination. Excited for the National Championship rematch with SDSU, but I may bet on UConn to cover the rest of the way.
- Purdue (1 seed)
- Similar domination to silence the critics after hearing it all year. Boilermakers mean business and have their sights set on much larger stages. Painter and Edey seems so poised and focused right now.. Good luck if you face them.
- North Carolina (1 seed)
- After a slow start against Michigan State, the Tar Heels poured it on the final 30 minutes of the game. Bacot and RJ Davis are playing like the seasoned veterans they are and look poised for another FInal Four run.
- Houston (1 seed)
- Despite the Texas A&M scare, I still heavily trust the Cougars and like them to get to the Final Four. If it wasn’t for crazy foul trouble against A&M, Houston wins by double digits and avoids any sweating.
- Illinois (2 seed)
- The Fighting Illini took advantage of lighter opponents to cash in on their first Sweet 16 since 2005 in dominating fashion. Terrance Shannon and co. looked the part and have the firepower to hang with anyone. Their matchup vs Iowa State will be a battle in Boston.
- Duke (2 seed)
- One of the big risers are the Blue Devils. Much like the Illini they were benefited from playing two double digit seeds, but a hot McCain/Proctor duo can beat almost anyone in this tournament.
- Iowa State (2 seed)
- While they didn’t have a crazy explosive or dominating weekend, they played their brand of basketball and got past both teams with relative ease. The lower half of the Boston region is going to be fun!
- Arizona (2 seed)
- I had much hesitation keeping Arizona on the 2 line as they played with their food a bit in both first weekend matchups. In the end, the Wildcats were too much and got past both Long Beach State and a scrappy Dayton team. The whole country is hoping for a UNC/Arizona matchup.. And so am I.
- Marquette (3 seed)
- Despite a shaky first half against WKU and a close contest with Colorado, I really liked what I saw from the Golden Eagles. Their offense with Kolek is lethal and I like this team defensively. They face a red hot NC State team and Oso Ighodaro will be responsible keeping DJ Burns in check this weekend.
- Creighton (3 seed)
- Creighton got past Akron with ease and needed an instant classic to get by Oregon and their former coach, Dana Altman. Despite their scare, I like the Bluejays shot making and ability to take over a game more than other teams left in the field. Their matchup against Tennessee should be another barn burner.
- Gonzaga (3 seed)
- Zags absolutely boat raced through their first weekend by obliterating both McNeese Sate and Kansas. This Zags team is much more real than I initially thought, and they’re off to their 9th (!!!) consecutive Sweet 16. They’re gonna need much of the same energy/play to matchup with Purdue. But when it comes to Mark Few in March, I suggest you tread lightly when counting out the Zags.
- Tennessee (3 seed)
- The Volunteers had no issue with St. Peter’s and then got into a slug fest with Texas. I was slightly concerned with their lack of shot making and an offense that look stalled at times. They will need more from Knecht against Creighton and expect them to regroup for a big time matchup vs. the Bluejays. Knecht vs. Scheirman.. Let’s gooooo!
- Clemson (4 seed)
- Maybe the most surprising team this weekend for me was the Clemson Tigers. They dominated both first weekend matchups against a hot New Mexico team and a lacklust Baylor team. I was wrong about the Tigers and they put the country on alert heading into their date against Arizona in Los Angeles.
- San Diego State (4 seed)
- The National Runner-Up didn’t show many signs of March regression. They had a hard fought battle with UAB and beat the brakes of a maxed out Yale team. This team is as hard nosed as teams come and will need everything they have in the tank for their National Championship rematch with UConn.
- Alabama (4 seed)
- The Tide handled business in both matchups and there were other teams that faced much more of a scare. Mark Sears is one of the better point guards left in the field and their offense can hang with anyone. Their defense, unfortunately for them, keeps any opponent in the game and if they go cold they could be in trouble. The Tide roll into a West Coast matchup vs the Tar Heels for a spot in the Elite 8.
- NC State (4 seed)
- The team of destiny! It’s no disrespect to the Wolfpack that they’re ranked 16/16, as this year has been incredibly chalky. DJ Burns and Kevin Keats have taken over March and looked the part in their first weekend. They’re as hot as anyone in the country and beat down on Texas Tech and controlled the entirety of their game vs a very good Oakland team. DJ Burns and Oso Ighodaro are the two best passing big men in the country and it’s a “grab your popcorn” type matchup. Keats has turned a hot seat into a very comfortable reclining seat in a matter of weeks.
Reseeding the Sweet 16 – System Prophet
Sidenote – I may place too much weight into blowout wins versus closer games in the round of 32 (My brain is conforming to act like NET rankings).
- Purdue (1 overall, 1 seed)
- Zach Edey has been dominant thus far, albeit against extremely inferior opponents. Edey will always get his, so that alone is not what warrants this ranking: When Purdue shoots the 3 as well as they are I don’t think they can be beated. When you have Smith, Loyer, Gillis, Jones, and Colvin all hitting threes consistently It feels like it is impossible to stop this team. With all the offense , they are still a top 15 defense and they are tough becasue they run you off the 3pt line and force you to make mid rangers. Not a lot of teams can consistently score like that, so it turns into bad 3s or contested 2s. With Edey and TKR they also kill you on the glass. I don’t like watching this team, but its hard to argue they are completely dominant.
- UConn (2 overall, 1 seed)
- If Purdue is 1, then UConn is pretty much 1b but for the sake of a hierarchical ranking we’ll put them at 2. They absolutely shit pumped Northwestern in the round of 32, and did not allow any chance for a Boo Buie takeover game. They share the ball so well and run great sets (they are 3rd in assists per game, right behind Purdue). They steamrolled through the Big East and have shown no signs of stopping down. Personally cheering for a battle of the titans in the National Championship between Purdue and UConn.
- Illinois (3 overall, 1 seed)
- Points. Points. Points. And on top of that: Points. That is what this Illinois team is all about. They can flat out score. Terrence Shannon and Marcus Domask are the best offensive duo in the NCAA tournament, and this team recently jumped to first in Adjusted Offense. Historically they hover in the top 4 offenses ever, with the 3 above them all having won the national championship. Now, I don’t know if this team will win the Natty (for the sake of my midseason Iowa State future I sure hope they don’t’) but this team will be able to score on anybody. Also, I think by making it to the Sweet Sixteen they got that monkey off their back and can play with house money.
- North Carolina (4 overall, 1 seed)
- When they flipped the switch against Michigan State late in the first half, l saw a scary North Carolina team. I’m not sure I’ve seen that version of them. When they are locked in, they are one of the top 5 defenses in college basketball. There was like a 6 minute stretch where not only could MSU not score on them, they couldn’t get a good shot. Add in when Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan are shooting 40% + from 3 with one of the best point guards in the country in R.J Davis and this team is lethal.
- Iowa State (5 Overall , 2 seed)
- I have been very high on this Iowa State for the entire year (we don’t talk units but I have an elite value future on them to win the national championship). They have the best defense in college basketball by a wide margin. They are the highest power 5 team in forcing turnovers. Now, I’m concerned that they do get stuck offensively. But they do have guard play with a great point guard in Tamin Lipsey. I can’t get it out of my head how bad they kicked the shit out of Houston in the B12 Championship.
- Houston(6 Overall, 2 seed)
- Houston is another elite defensive team and is led by one of the best players in the country in Jamal Shead. They are absolute animals on the offensive glass and are well coached. The reason I have them below the others is mainly because of the B12 Championship and the scare with Texas A&M. I don’t know how you see them get damn near 40 pieced by Iowa State and rank them above the Cyclones.
- Duke (7 Overall , 2 seed)
- This may be a bit high for Duke, but they’ve looked so good in the tournament. They have always been one of the more talented teams in the country, but they haven’t quite put it all together consistently. I know it is JMU, but they looked like one of the best teams in the country. You have a championship backcourt in Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain, and a lottery pick in Kyle Filipowski. I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat Houston Friday night.
- Marquette (8 Overall, 2 seed)
- This is where it starts to get very tough for me. I was between Marquette, Tennessee, and Creighton. But this is where you gotta start splitting hairs. I think Kolek / Kam Jones / Ighodaro is a better trio than either Tenn and Creighton have. I don’t love Shaka in March, but I feel more confident because it is a senior led team.
- Tennessee (9 Overall, 3 seed)
- I got a little scared off of Tennessee after their performance in the SEC tournament and the scare against Texas. Dalton Knecht is one of the top 3 players in college basketball, but outside of him I think offense is really hard to come by. It feels like he is either cooking and playing a little hero ball or they get stuck. I think their game against Creighton is a coin flip but I give the edge because of Knecht.
- Creighton (10 Overall, 3 seed)
- I really Nehmard didn’t transfer because that feels like the missing piece (He should’ve ran it back). I love McDermott and this team. You have Schiermann who is an elite shot maker, the 2 time Big East DPOY in Kalkbrenner (who could be an Edey stopper in the Elite Eight), and Alexander who could be a NBA player. I just don’t love Ashworth, and I get stuck on guard play in March. They are also a bit top heavy for my liking, which will matter against Tennessee and potentially Purdue.
- Arizona (11 Overall, 3 seed)
- Hand Up. This may be a west coast bias against Arizona. I’m just not a fan of relying on Caleb Love to have a great game shooting. Their metrics are great, top 10 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense. This is a gut feeling ranking. Wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson beat them.
- Alabama (12 Overall, 3 Seed)
- Alabama is analytically one of the best offenses in college basketball, and Marcus Sears is electric. I just deeply don’t believe in their style of offense in a single game elimination tournament. Hucking up 30 threes a game performs well over the course of a season , but in one game it is extremely volatile. I think UNC is going to boat race them. You need to guard people to win in March.
- Clemson (13 Overall , 4 seed)
- This team surprised a lot of people by beating New Mexcio. Not often do you see a 6 seed as a 2.5 point underdog to the 11. Not only did they win but they beat the shit out of New Mexico, it was never close. Then they came out and killed Baylor until the last 4 minutes. I like Girard and Hunter as the backcourt, and PJ Hall has been a beast. Schieffelen has become a fan favorite, he’s got an old man game that I love. Ok, by the end of this paragraph I’ve talked myself into Clemson Moneyline.
- Gonzaga (14 Overall, 4 seed)
- It feels slightly disrespectful putting a Mark Few coached team this low, and especially below Clemson. It took them a while to get going this season, and they looked great against Mcneese and Kansas. My issue is I think they played an extremely overrated upset pick in Mcneese who played an all women’s college in theri schedule , and then a depleted Kansas team who was already focused on next year. This is not one of Few’s better teams, and I’m not fooled by the wins.
- N.C State (15 Overall, 4 Seed)
- This has been a very fun end of the season run for this squad. Ripping off 7 in a row including the 5 in 5 days for the ACC tournament. It is really cool tha Keatts got an automatic extension by winning the ACC championship. But I view this team as a lightning in a bottle situation, and another week in between games doesn’t help with that.
- San Diego State (16 Overall , 4 seed)
- This ranking might be entirely because they are playing UConn and the game is already over. Mountain West has sucked this year in the tournament and the Aztecs are due to exit in this National Championship game rematch.