After a long 5 months of excellent college basketball , alas we arrive at the peak of the sports calendar. 

East Region (Onions):

• Blurb: So much for rewarding the defending champion and overall seed in the tournament, the UConn Huskies. The four protected seeds in the East region all won their respective conference tournaments and IMO none are the clear weakest seed on their respective lines. Throw in FAU and SDSU who both made the Final Four last year… this region is absolutely LOADED. 
• Favorite First Round Matchup: FAU vs. Northwestern. Elite veteran guard play and two up and coming coaches. Boo Buie vs. Johnell Davis will be must watch TV and both of these teams can get hot in a hurry.
• Cinderella Run?: Drake Bulldogs

  • I absolutely love this team. They have been a machine all year which is reflected in their 10 seed from the Missouri Valley Conference. This team may not be considered an upset in the first round, but I absolutely think they have the cats that can run with Iowa State and other high seeded teams in the conference. Their best player, Tucker DeVries is the coaches son (gives me Georgia State RJ Hunter vibes). I think they get past Washington State team and then dance into the second weekend after beating in state foe Iowa State. Bulldogs would then likely meet a BYU/Illinois team where I’ll take my chances again. 

• All Region Team:

  • Tristen Newton, G (UConn)
  • Boo Buie, G (NW)
  • Terrance Shannon, G (Illinois)
  • Jaedon LeDee, F (SDSU)
  • Donovan Clingan, C (UConn)
  • 6M: Johni Broome, G (Auburn)

• Elite 8 Result: UConn beats Drake

East Region (System Prophet):

• sidenote: Is it weird to anyone else that the bracket has the East in the top left, the South in the top right, and the Midwest Region in the bottom left? That feels off. #JustMyThoughtsComingFromAFanOfProperPlacementofCardinalDirections
• Blurb: We start our analysis at the Barclays Center where the Dan Hurley led defending NAtional Champion Huskies are looking to be the first school to repeat since the 06/07 Florida Gators. I think this would be significantly more impressive, considering that Florida team had their whole starting 5 return while this UCONN team replaced a majority of their production. However, the Committee did the Huskies no favors as their region is loaded. I think they have the toughest 8/9 draw out of any 1 seed. You’re either playing a team that went to the Final Four last year or a Northwestern team where Boo Buie is a threat to go off for 30 +.  Then you have either a red hot Auburn team who at that point would have won 6+ plus games in a row or a reigning National runner up who wants revenge. Don’t worry UCONN fans, if you get past that then you only have the winner of the B12 Champion Iowa State Cyclones (who just beat the absolute piss out of Houston) or B10 champs Illinois who have maybe the best scoring duo in College Basketball in Terrence Shannon / Marcus Domask. That is what they call a Gauntlet. Notice I didn’t throw any cinderellas in there , because I don’t believe this region is full of deep run potential from high seeds. I see a Yale team that absolutely should’ve lost to Brown in the Ivy League Championship (still pissed I lost money on that bullshit because Brown live ML was a sharp play), a UAB team that wasn’t close to the bubble barring their AAC run, and a Duquesne team that has never been to the tournament. Drake I could potentially be talked into, but I love this Iowa State team so that is a no for me. 
• Favorite First Round Matchup: Hard not to pick FAU vs Northwestern. FAU seems to be the sexy pick because everyone wants to see that 1 / 8 with UConn. BUT, Northwestern is a really good team and Chris Collins should’ve been in consideration for B10 COY for how they’ve played while being decimated by injuries. Boo Buie is gonna be the best player on the court and I love the matchup with these FAU guards that went on a run last year. 
• Favorite Upset Pick / Cinderella : As I mentioned, this isn’t the region for upsets. I think 1 through 6 are all chalk, and even Drake is a bit too popular at this point for me. But for sake of favorites, I think Drake is the most likely. A potential in-state showdown in the round of 32. 
• Coach under the Most Pressure for a Run: This is an easy category for this region. Brad Underwood has to take this Illinois team to at least a Sweet 16. He has had some very good teams since the start of his tenure and has sneaky choked in March multiple times. That Ayo/Kofi/Trent Frazier team should’ve been a second weekend team. Further, this Illinois team might have 2 of the top 5 players in the region. BYU are B12 metric merchants, so that shouldn’t be too daunting in the round of 32. I think a Sweet 16 is the make or break for this season, and everything after is gravy. 
• Elite 8 Result: This one is extremely tough. UConn has been far and away the best team in the country over the course of the season. But there is a reason that not many teams have ever won back to back. I think they’ll end up playing an Iowa State that can REALLY defend. I will be interesting to see how this team looks when they get punched in the mouth by a defensive juggernaut like the Cyclones. Everyone is on UConn, I think Iowa State will take them down and go to the Final Four (T.J. Otzelberger has done an unbelievable job with that program)

South Region (Onions):

• Blurb: A fun region headlined by Houston, some blue bloods in Kentucky and Duke, and two “cheesehead” teams in Marquette and Wisconsin. NC State and their big fella DJ Burns squeak in after winning the ACC tournament. James Madison, Vermont, and Oakland headline some potential Cinderella stories. 
• Favorite First Round Matchup: I may have leaned Florida vs. the winner of Boise State/Colorado before Florida’s big man got hurt in the SEC Championship, so I will pivot to Texas Tech vs. NC State. NC State won 5 games in 5 days in Washington DC (more wins than the Wizards have all year at home) to win the ACC and punch their ticket to the dance. Will be very fun to see if they can continue their hot streak vs. a solid Red Raider team. 
• Cinderella Run?: James Madison will be the trendy pick here, but I will go with the Oakland Grizzlies. They can score with the best of the country and have some solid wins in the non-conference. I like this UK team a lot, but their youth could bite them if they’re not ready. Oakland v. NC State would be a fun second round matchup.
• All Region Team:

  • Jamal Shead, G (Houston)
  • Tyler Kolek, G (Marquette)
  • Antonio Reeves, G (UK)
  • Kyle Filipowski, F (Duke)
  • Oso Ighodaro, C (Marquette)
  • 6M: Reed Sheppard (UK)

• Elite 8 Result: Houston beats Marquette (chalkkkk)

South Region (System Prophet) 

• Blurb: We get Houston as the 2nd 1 seed and I’m quite sure they’ll bounce back from the shit-kicking in the B12 Championship. It would be fair to be scared by that game for Houston (41 points is shockingly low), but I don’t know if this region has the horses to take them down. They do have a sneaky tough 8/9 game ahead of them. Nebraska is looking for their first tournament win ever, while the Aggies looked really good in the SEC tournament. Personally, I’d love to see Keisei Tominaga catch absolute fire in this tournament to capture the hearts of America (unfortunately the game is not being played in Lincoln, Nebraska ). 

James Madison is going to be a sexy 5/12 upset pick this year. They have the most wins in college basketball this year, but outside of beating Michigan State in November at East Lansing (Sparty shot 2/22 from Three, so a statistical anomaly that we shouldn’t count) they haven’t really had to play anyone. Wisconsin showed a ton of life in the B10 tourney after an absolutely dreadful February. I like this Badger team a lot, they have guard play / size / shooting. Duke is the 4 seed in the pod, where Kenmpom has them as a low 2 seed. They’re very talented and got guard play led by Jeremy Roach, but I don’t know I just don’t buy them at all as serious threats for a Final Four. 

Kentucky and Marquette are a volatile 2 / 3 seed. Kentucky is fun because they can put up 90 without sweating, but they don’t guard a soul. Marquette has the same core that got bounced by Sparty in the Round of 32, and do we trust this team with a banged up Tyler Kolek? I think this region runs squarely through Houston.

• Favorite First Round Matchup: Wisconsin vs James Madison is the most intriguing to me (especially as an AWL for Pardon My Take), but I think a potential Florida / Colorado game could be a ton of fun. I know Micah Handlogten went down for the Gators, but they got an electric backcourt (sidenote the O’Connell Center is a great place to watch a basketball game). Colorado has multiple NBA players, including the potential top pick. It’ll be a ton of offense, up and down, and a close game. 
• Favorite Upset Pick / Cinderella: My favorite Bracket Buster is in this region, and I especially love it because nobody is picking it : The Greg Kampe led Oakland Grizzlies. I am picking Oakland to knock off Kentucky in the 3 / 14 spot. This Oakland team gave the Illini all they could handle at The State Farm Center and I absolutely fell in love with them in the Horizon League Conference Tourney. They got an elite score in Trey Townsend who put 30 + multiple times in the conference tourney, and a guard in Jack Gohlke that literally only shoots 3s. Sidenote, I guarantee there will be a viral twitter moment about Rocket Watts still playing college basketball that circulates when this game tips off. Oakland plays a cheeky, weird zone that could mess with Kentucky’s freshman. I keep coming back to this is an extremely young Kentucky team and this is an overlooked matchup. 
• Coach Under the Most Pressure for a Run: I have two finalists I am back and forth on: Shaka Smart and John Calipari. I would say Shaka, but with Kolek’s injury there is almost a built-in excuse to fall back on if you’re a Marquette fan (not that you’d be happy doing that). Calipari’s seat always feels weirdly warm with a lifetime contract. He hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2015, which wildly is approaching 10 years, and has been upset multiple times early in that span. I think there is big pressure from Big Blue Nation on Coach Cal. 

• Elite 8 Result: I have the Florida Gators making a surprise run in the bottom half of the bracket and reaching the Elite 8. Houston, however, wins the region and advances to the Final Four.

West Region (Onions):

• Blurb: This region may have the best chance to absolutely blow up. IMO the weakest 1, 2, and 3 seed are in this region. Everyone will be looking towards the potential Elite 8 matchup that could feature Caleb Love and Arizona vs. his previous team in the North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC and Arizona have been prone to some questionable losses all year and I just can’t see them going unscathed over a four game stretch. Look for teams like Nevada and New Mexico to make a run and maybe Tom Izzo has another run up his sleeve. 
• Favorite First Round Matchup: St. Mary’s vs. Grand Canyon should be a fun matchup between two West Coast teams in Spokane. Grand Canyon can play and will be a very trendy pick for first round upsets. I love this St. Mary’s team and think they could be a benefactor if this region blows up. After starting 3-5, Randy Bennett had the Gaels finish 23-2 down the stretch. This matchup will be fun and a back ‘n forth affair.
• Cinderella Run?: Charleston Cougars

  • Pat Kelsey has become familiar with this tournament in recent years and his team could make some noise this year. Charleston draws an offensive juggernaut in Alabama Round 1, but they have some firepower of their own. If they can get some stops they can beat Alabama and challenge St. Mary’s/GCU in the second round. I’ll have the Cougars dancing past The Tide. (I don’t view Nevada a Cinderella)

• All Region Team:

  • RJ Davis, G (Zona)
  • Caleb Love, G (UNC)
  • DaRon Holmes, F (Dayton)
  • Armando Bacot, F (UNC)
  • PJ Hall, C (Clemson)
  • 6M: Tyon Grant-Foster, F (GCU)

• Elite 8 Result: St. Mary’s beats Nevada (just how my bracket shook out)

West Region (System Prophet)

• Blurb: The West region is absolutely wide open in my opinion. I have a firm conviction that the winner of this region will be ranked lower than 4. If you are looking for a cinderella final four run, it is most likely to come out of the West. It was pretty shocking North Carolina got the final 1 seed after getting somewhat bullied by NC State (DJ Burns more specifically). The predictive metrics have this Tar Heel squad slated around a 3 seed, so a relatively weak 1 seed. Then you get Arizona, who has had a lot of stinkers this year and play in the PAC-12. Baylor and Alabama are both consistently inconsistent and I can see them both being upset in the round of 64. Then the 5 seed is St. Mary’s , who is by all accounts a really good team but do we think a WCC team (outside of Gonzaga) is going to make a final four run? Even Clemson feels like the weakest 6 seed after limping to the finish line in the ACC. With these weaknesses, I do think the 8/9 slot is the strongest of the tournament. While Michigan State has been up and down, this team still has the potential to make a deep March run. All in all this is quite literally the Wild West. 
• Favorite First Round Matchup: Alabama by themselves play a very fun style of basketball, but being matched with College of Charleston puts the pace / style on steroids. Both of these teams are top 10 in 3 pointers made, each averaging 10+ makes a game from deep. Going to be so much shooting and pace, it’ll make for a fun game. I will note that the volatility of the 3 point jump shot makes this a pretty attractive upset spot if COC gets hot and Bama is missing shots. 
• Favorite Upset Pick / Cinderella: This one is extremely popular and not even an upset anymore as vegas is picking them to win, but I Iove New Mexico in this region.  They are already favored by 2 over a weak Clemson team (House is gonna eat Joe Girard’s lunch), and then they get paired with a Baylor matchup. New Mexico is top 10 in turnover margin and top 50 in turnovers forced, and Baylor can get sloppy with the ball (especially RayJ Dennis). I see them in the Sweet 16 against Arizona with a chance at an Elite Eight. Also good to Richard Pitino doing well after his Minnesota exit. 
• Coach Under the Most Pressure for a Run: This region doesn’t have a ton of suitors for this category, but gun to my head I would choose Tommy Lloyd. It feels weird to choose a 3rd year head coach who has been to the Sweet 16, but at the same time it almost goes forgotten in the College Basketball world that Arizona lost to Princeton as a 2 seed. He was so lucky that got paired with Purdue losing to Fairleigh Dickinson. We are dumb sports fans, and the ‘choker’ label can get thrown around very quickly. If Arizona doesn’t make a Sweet 16 at least, I think we’ll hear murmurs of that label. 

•  Elite 8 Result: January. February. Izzo. This region is so wide open that it feels like the perfect spot for a Michigan State final four run. I have Sparty beating New Mexico in the Wild West Elite Eight.

Midwest Region (Onions):

• Blurb: DUN DUN DUN. Will Purdue avoid their recent March struggles? I think so. Purdue, Tennessee, Creighton, and Kansas headline this region along with some mid-major’s that have firepower in McNeese State and Samford (don’t sleep on Akron as well). This unlike other regions is a three team region IMO. I don’t think Kansas, Gonzaga, South Carolina, or Texas have any juice for an extended March run (crazy Texas got a 7 seed), so it really comes down do Purdue, Creighton, and Tennessee. 
• Favorite First Round Matchup: South Carolina vs. Oregon

  • TCU v. Utah State will be cool but I’m intrigued to watch this Oregon team that has gotten hot as of recently. They won the final Pac 12 tournament to get into the tournament and face a South Carolina team that has overachieved all season. I think this will be a dog fight and likely like Oregon in the end. Dana Altman always has a little March magic up his sleeve when he plays in the tournament. 

• Cinderella Run?: Samford

  • With Kevin McCullar being out for the tournament that takes the air out of an already flat Kansas team. Hunter Dickinson is expected to play, but I just don’t see this team doing anything. And this Samford team can flat out hoop! They have a 29-5 record and got tested in non-conference by some big time programs. I’ll take the Bulldogs over Kansas and maybe they can beat the winner of McNeese State (another hot Cinderella pick) and Gonzaga. There may be a double digit seed playing Purdue in the Sweet 16 (uh oh!).

• All Region Team:

  • Isiah Stevens, G (CSU)
  • Braden Smith, G (Purdue)
  • Baylor Scheirman, F (Creighton)
  • Dalton Knecht, F (Tenn)
  • Zach Edey, C (Purdue)
  • 6M: Pick between Trey Alexander/Ryan Kalkbrenner

• Elite 8 Result: Creighton beats Purdue

  • This deserves a blurb. I think the Bluejays are a matchup nightmare for Purdue. Kalkbrenner can bang with Edey better than anyone and they have so much shooting that would give Purdue fits. Purdue won’t be getting that Big 10 whistle in the tournament and I think the winner of Creighton/Tennessee (I’m rocking with the Bluejays) takes down the Boilers. 

Midwest Region(System Prophet) 

• Blurb: Between Rick Barnes and Matt Painter (some would throw Greg McDermott in here), we have the region where inevitably one infamous March choker can break through (or so we think). To me, the only 3 possible winners of this region are the 1/2/3 seed. An injured Kansas team as the 4, a down Gonzaga team as the 5, and a (fraudulent) South Carolina team as the 6 doesn’t bring a ton of juice. Maybe TCU can cause some problems to Purdue with their pace, but Purdue should have a cake walk to the Elite 8. With McCullar out for the Jayhawks, Samford over Kansas will be another sexy upset pick. Samford rolls 10 deep where Kansas plays 6-7, that could matter in the altitude. This Gonzaga team has lost me too much money this season for me to believe in them as threats, but with the draw Mark Few can will them to the Sweet 16. However, Tennessee and Creighton are the best 2/3 combo in the whole bracket. This Elite 8 has the potential to be one of the best games of the tournament. 
• Favorite First Round Matchup: Purdue vs Montana State. I am just praying that Montana State hangs around for a little just so all the pressure starts to ramp up on the Boilermakers. Purdue isn’t going to lose this game, but I am fascinated to see how they look with all the mental baggage following last year. If Montana State is even remotely in the game late in the 2nd it’ll have all of America watching. Also for future forecasting of the tournament, I’m interested to see the free throw splits. Hopefully the Edey whistle isn’t being used like in the B10. 
• Favorite Upset / Cinderella: I think Samford is very likely to happen with McCullar out, but I’m worried how obvious it is. So I’ll choose Oregon over South Carolina in round 1. I really wish this Oregon team was paired with a different 3 seed or else I would have them in the Sweet 16. Dana Altman is hard to beat in the NCAA tournament, and this South Carolina feels fake. Lemont Paris had a great year, but man Auburn beat the shit out of them in the SEC tournament. As this Oregon team has gotten healthier, they’ve been on a roll. Quack Quack. 
• Coach Under the Most Pressure for a Run: This is easy. Matt Painter not reaching the Elite Eight with the National Player of the Year as a Number 1 seed in back to back years would be malpractice. This is about as good of a draw as they could ask for, and there is no reason this team should lose before the Elite Eight. Painter’s job will never be in question (nor should it be) but you start to get the feeling that if it doesn’t happen with this team, then when will it?

• Elite 8 Result : Purdue vs Creighton play in an electric Elite Eight matchup, with the Creighton Bluejays advancing to the Final Four. I count this as a successful season for Purdue, even without a Final Four. But Creighton has all the ingredients to take down Purdue. Kalkbrenner is the perfect opposing big to match Edey: He is a big defensive shot-blocking presence that defends without fouling, and on offense he can space the floor and draw Edey away from the paint. I have Creighton as my ultimate National Champion. 

Final Four and Recap (Onions):

In the end I have the UConn Huskies repeating as National Champions.. marking the first time a team has gone back-to-back since ‘06/’07 when the Florida Gators did coached by Billy Donovan (google his Providence team when he was PG for Rick Pitino and lead them team to the F4.. it is ridden with notable basketball names). I made one bracket this year. Entered the same bracket into the company and the fellas pool. Something about sticking to your guns after keeping your hand on the pulse of college basketball all year. I wasn’t shy with the upsets, but neither is March. In my hypothetical Final Four, UConn beats St. Mary’s by 20 plus points and Houston just tired Creighton out into oblivion. Bluejays shot making runs out and the Cougars advance to face the Huskies in the National TItle game. It only makes sense as these have been the two best teams all year that have seem to not drop bad games.. while being surrounded by a field that feels susceptible to a loss at any moment. Not these two. I think they’re clear and away the two best teams and it would be a privilege to watch them play on Monday night in Phoenix. While I do have a future on Houston to win it all (January ticket.. nothing crazy), I think UConn wins for the second straight year. A lot of people will have the Huskies making the Final Four and then losing somewhere to avoid chalk and repeat champs. But that’s not how things work in Storrs. They’ve been to six Final Fours and have five National Titles. That is extraordinarily elite. No other program has a natty win rate like that. A natty this year will crown UConn the modern day king of basketball. You can’t call them UCLA because John Wooden strung 7 straight and didn’t experience down years (similar to Indiana), but there is no other program like Connecticut. THEY HAVE 5 NATTIES SINCE 1999. That’s more than Kansas all time and tied with Duke. If they go back-to-back this year they’ll be tied for third all time with North Carolina.. only to trail Indiana (8) and UCLA (11). That would make them the kings of this century IMO. The thing about UConn is that they just get blistering hot and win 6 straight games in March. If UConn loses this tournament it will be before they arrive in Phoenix. Call me LeBron James for the chalk I’m tossing in the air for my National Championship, but that’s my bracket and would love to watch Huskies vs. Cougars and Hurley vs. Sampson. 

It’s been a helluva hoops season and I can’t wait to relish in basketball over the next 18 days. Happy Holidays…. ONIONS!

Final Four and Recap (System Prophet): 

My Final Four is Iowa State, Michigan State, Houston,  and Creighton. To me this is a perfect combination of chalk with some “cinderella” runs. Iowa State would be an incredible story considering they would’ve had to slay the giant in UConn, and a few years removed from going 2-22 and not winning a single B12 game. Michigan State would also be playing up to what their preseason rankings suggested they were, with Tom Izzo capturing his 9th Final Four. Houston is the lone 1 seed after bullying their way through the South region. Creighton goes to its first final four under Greg McDermott. In the end I have the Creighton Bluejays defeating the Iowa State Cyclones to win their first ever National Championship. I love this Creighton team: they fit all the kenpom requirements, they fall wonderfully within the heralded trapezoid of excellence, have multiple NBA players, and Mcdermott runs awesome sets. In a year where the top 3 programs seemed to have separated themselves from the field, none will be the ones cutting down the nets. Creighton winning a national championship would perfectly encapsulate the beauty of College Basketball, and I’m going to speak it into existence. This has been a fun season. We’ve had a few bumps getting the blog and twitter running, but this season was something to build on. The System had a rough year (relatively speaking), but with a proven backtest on a constructed dataset we have confidence moving forward. #WEHAVEDATA